Music sales and popularity used to operate on a very similar trajectory. Release a song, spend time building up the popularity, let it gain mass acceptance, and then it tapers away. If you were to graph it, it would look either like a bell curve or an inverted V-shape mountain.

Now, electronic consumption of music has made most discovery more rapid. As an example, a recent report showed that the half life of a YouTube video was six days. And as I was explaining what I was seeing in a recent chat with the founder of Next Big Sound, an interesting correlation came to me.

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In Chapter 12 of Futurehit.DNA, I talk about the need to perform cover versions as they serve multiple purposes. One of them is searches in iTunes where your song shows up next to the “official” version. I also note that sometimes it just takes the song title to be the same. Last year, I talked about Rihanna’s “Russian Roulette” single and how it was harder to discover because the band 10 Years had a song of the same name. Well, below is a lesson for all artists on why you have to be careful with your song names and subsequently how you might benefit from the right song name.

I’ll tell this story in the order that it occurred.

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I love reading Glenn Peoples’ take on the business in Billboard. He’s quickly becoming a trusted source for industry analysis. This week, he distilled some sales information that was presented at NARM last month in an article entitled “Important Sales Trends You Need To Know”. And you do need to know them. Click over, read it, and come back.

You’re back…Good. Glenn is spot on in his take, and my thoughts on the analysis are more additional thoughts thru the Futurehit.DNA filter that I am inferring from the data presented.

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This morning I was reading Bob Lefsetz’s post on the Steve Jobs’ interview from Walt Mossberg’s D8 Conference. In it, he discussed the controversy of banning Flash from Apple’s mobile devices, which I’ve been following with great interest. He also reminded the audience (and me) that Apple has in the past banished floppy drives, serial inputs, and optical drives. All long forgotten and computing has improved because of it.

It instantly reminded me of the textbook example of AT&T and how they developed the push button phone to replace the rotary phone. They didn’t do it because it was vital. People were happy with their rotary phones, and little seemed to be ready to challenge it. They did it because if they didn’t develop the push button phone, someone else would. And if someone else did, they would lose their market dominance.

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I’m currently in the Nashville airport about to board my flight to Denmark to speak at the SPOT festival on Friday. As happens in these conferences, I get hit up by bands asking me to listen and see them play. Normally I ignore these but this time I decided to listen to the artists…but with rules.

I would take all the bands who contacted me and give them all an hour to impress me. This is similar to timeframes that average listeners have. Their time is limited and precious. I am no different. Then I put the songs I heard thru the Futurehit.DNA filter, specifically the quick engaging intro. I ended up giving the bands two hours, so I actually became generous. Want to know the results?

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I’d like to think that Futurehit.DNA had something to do with the song “I Pray For You” by Jaron and the Long Road To Love. And for sure, it’s at least a LITTLE something, as Jaron was kind enough to include the book as a cameo in the first video for the song. As I recall it, Jaron and I had drinks one night where we discussed the book and the energy practically was bursting out of him as we talked. Less than a month later, he emailed me an MP3 of “I Pray For You” which did have a ton of the Futurehit elements. The creativity is all Jaron, but I think Futurehit.DNA had some influence and here’s how:

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Last week, several articles came out decrying a flattening of digital track sales as a sign of an ever worsening music business. Indeed, you can’t argue the overall numbers which don’t look healthy. But on the flip side, the skeptic in me is certainly dubious of such immediate doom and gloom. And an in depth look at the numbers has proven me right. Certain sectors are in trouble but the digital business remains healthy.

Indeed, Soundscan is reporting a 1% drop in track sales for Q1 2010 over 2009. The likely culprit, as reported, is the adoption of variable pricing bringing the impulse purchase down. In the face of a price hurdle, one could view the decline as a slowdown rather than a trend towards doomsday.

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UPDATE: The below post originally appeared on Hypebot earlier this week and big thanks to Bruce for allowing me the space to discuss. Since then I’ve gotten a fantastic response from the music industry, especially around more frequent releases. Even execs who can’t yet convince their labels to release more music more often are agreeing. This will be the wave of the future. To emphasize that point, the day after the original post Island released yet another single and video for Justin. That’s 4 videos in 10 months. Also, My World 2.0 not only debuted at #1, but sold about 25% more than expected AND the first record increased in sales by 30%. Here’s the original post:

Justin Bieber mania has arrived. With the release of his new album, My World 2.0, and a sure thing #1 debut, many people are wondering how it happened. Teen phenomenons can certainly happen fast, but rarely without the help of a Disney show in recent years. By my rough calculations, after the first week sales of his new album are accounted for, Justin will have grossed approximately $15 million in total recorded music sales, not including ringtones, streaming revenue, T-shirts or posters in less than 9 months. And that’s just in the United States. For a music business in “trouble” and an artist aimed clearly at teenagers and below, this is a success, especially because the train is really just leaving the station.

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